Daily Scan — 2026-09-30 (Post-Market) — ✅ COMPLETED
Today: 2026-09-30.
market_state= CLOSED (stock_pricemarket_state, source: derived from currentTradingPeriod). The 2026-09-30 session has settled — every price below is the settled daily-bar close for 2026-09-30, per the verbatim basis strings in Phase 0. Completed 2026-10-01 ~04:10 UTC (= 2026-09-30 late-evening ET), same wakeup as the Phase 0 checkpoint: the Phase 0 block below is byte-identical to the one written earlier in this wakeup; prices were never re-fetched after the checkpoint.
Phase 0 — Real-Time Price
Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='NVDA') → $228.38
Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='TSLA') → $354.81
Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='AAPL') → $333.02
Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='MSFT') → $512.90
Called: stock_price(action='quote', symbol='AMD') → $611.76
Market state: CLOSED (stock_price market_state, source: derived from currentTradingPeriod)
| Sym | Close 09-30 [T1: Verified] | Prior close 09-29 [T1: Verified] | Change vs prior close | 09-30 volume [T1: Verified] |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $228.38 (price_basis: "last close 2026-09-30 (quoted 2026-09-30 16:00 EDT, before the 2026-10-01 session opens 09:30 EDT)") | $227.21 (previous_close_basis: "prior daily bar 2026-09-29 (the bar before the 2026-09-30 session, which produced price)") |
228.38 − 227.21 = +$1.17 / +0.51% | 121,269,300 |
| TSLA | $354.81 (price_basis: "last close 2026-09-30 (quoted 2026-09-30 16:00 EDT, before the 2026-10-01 session opens 09:30 EDT)") | $352.84 (previous_close_basis: "prior daily bar 2026-09-29 (the bar before the 2026-09-30 session, which produced price)") |
354.81 − 352.84 = +$1.97 / +0.56% | 39,158,100 |
| AAPL | $333.02 (price_basis: "last close 2026-09-30 (quoted 2026-09-30 16:00 EDT, before the 2026-10-01 session opens 09:30 EDT)") | $329.40 (previous_close_basis: "prior daily bar 2026-09-29 (the bar before the 2026-09-30 session, which produced price)") |
333.02 − 329.40 = +$3.62 / +1.10% | 49,931,500 |
| MSFT | $512.90 (price_basis: "last close 2026-09-30 (quoted 2026-09-30 16:00 EDT, before the 2026-10-01 session opens 09:30 EDT)") | $508.96 (previous_close_basis: "prior daily bar 2026-09-29 (the bar before the 2026-09-30 session, which produced price)") |
512.90 − 508.96 = +$3.94 / +0.77% | 27,197,800 |
| AMD | $611.76 (price_basis: "last close 2026-09-30 (quoted 2026-09-30 16:00 EDT, before the 2026-10-01 session opens 09:30 EDT)") | $607.57 (previous_close_basis: "prior daily bar 2026-09-29 (the bar before the 2026-09-30 session, which produced price)") |
611.76 − 607.57 = +$4.19 / +0.69% | 16,685,700 |
Daily-change arithmetic recomputed from the two printed figures: (228.38−227.21)/227.21 = +0.51%; (354.81−352.84)/352.84 = +0.56%; (333.02−329.40)/329.40 = +1.10%; (512.90−508.96)/508.96 = +0.77%; (611.76−607.57)/607.57 = +0.69%. All match the tool's change/change_percent.
Status: Phase 0 saved 20:00 — ⛔ INCOMPLETE, NOT A DELIVERABLE. Only the Phase 0 prices above are real; no analysis has been written yet. If this line is still in this file, the wakeup that wrote it ended before finishing — do not publish, cite, or summarize it. — ✅ COMPLETED in the same wakeup, before this wakeup ended: the status line above was superseded and the completed scan follows from here; Phase 0 block and its basis strings are preserved verbatim.
Tool status (this wakeup): stock_price quote ×5, extremes ×5, history ×2 (NVDA, TSLA) — all OK. swarm_debate — OK, archived (path below). market_signals(read) — OK. web_search — failed: first attempt timed out exactly as Error: search failed: SearXNG request failed: Get "http://localhost:8080/search?...&format=json&language=en-US": context deadline exceeded (Client.Timeout exceeded while awaiting headers); second attempt (different query) returned only generic, undated directory pages (nvidia.com homepage, Wikipedia, Yahoo Finance home, older recaps dated 09-04/09-08/09-17) — nothing specific to 2026-09-30. No fresh news is included; the news section below is a status section, not content.
1-Month Extremes (window 2026-09-01..2026-09-30, 21 daily bars)
All below from stock_price(action='extremes', symbol=… , period='1mo') this wakeup [T1: Verified — verbatim returns; volume baseline basis each return: "arithmetic mean of 21 daily volume bars over 2026-09-01..2026-09-30"].
| Sym | 1mo high (date) | 1mo low (date) | 1mo best close (date) | 1mo worst close (date) | Avg 21-day volume | 09-30 volume | Vol vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 234.76 (09-04) | 208.93 (09-14) | 230.36 (09-04) | 210.96 (09-14) | 112,697,119 | 121,269,300 | 1.08x |
| TSLA | 386.83 (09-25) | 345.88 (09-30) † | 380.12 (09-23) | 352.84 (09-29) | 38,555,600 | 39,158,100 | 1.02x |
| AAPL | 345.34 (09-22) | 309.90 (09-09) | 341.07 (09-25) | 315.34 (09-09) | 42,821,180 | 49,931,500 | 1.17x |
| MSFT | 519.83 (09-30) † | 486.00 (09-10) | 516.17 (09-25) | 490.30 (09-16) | 21,334,671 | 27,197,800 | 1.27x |
| AMD | 639.00 (09-25) | 440.50 (09-03) | 630.63 (09-25) | 456.16 (09-03) | 21,906,323 | 16,685,700 | 0.76x |
† Today's own bar set the extreme (MSFT's high and TSLA's low are both today's bar). Flagged explicitly per the working-memory self-check, with the tool's own citation: TSLA "period low $345.88 (2026-09-30) [stock_price action=extremes, period=1mo, window 2026-09-01..2026-09-30, 21 bars]"; MSFT "period high $519.83 (2026-09-30) [stock_price action=extremes, period=1mo, window 2026-09-01..2026-09-30, 21 bars]" — these are extremes field returns, not transcribed values. Cross-check performed: no row's avg-volume or period value equals that row's daily value in three significant figures, except these two flagged cases, which are coincidences the tool itself asserts for today's bar.
Window note: the window rolled — the 2026-08-31 bar left it and the 09-30 bar entered it, so the same metrics differ slightly from the same-day pre-market scan (e.g., NVDA avg volume 112,697,119 now vs 112,846,714 there). Both extremes calls were tool returns in their own wakeups [T1: Verified] each; the differences are the window, not a discrepancy.
Technical read (every relation below is the subtraction, verified)
NVDA — compressing under the 09-04 ceiling. Settled $228.38 (+$1.17 / +0.51%, from Phase 0). Third successive lower intraday high since the peak: 234.76 (09-04 high) > 233.21 (09-28 high) > 232.82 (09-29 high) > 232.37 (09-30 high) — each later high smaller, so the tape is pressing down, not breaking upward. The close sits 6.38 below the 1mo high 234.76 (234.76 − 228.38 = 6.38; 6.38/234.76 = 2.72% below), 1.98 below the 1mo best close 230.36 (230.36 − 228.38 = 1.98; 0.86% below), and 19.45 above the 1mo low 208.93 (228.38 − 208.93 = 19.45; 9.31% above). Volume 1.08x avg — the second consecutive rising-volume close (09-29 was 0.90x per the pre-market scan's extremes return), but still no thrust high.
TSLA — the basket's risk-off leg. The 09-30 intraday low 345.88 is the new 1-month low (extremes period_low; it undercuts the 08-31 bar's 347.15 that was the prior period low before the window rolled). The close did not extend a closing low: $354.81 sits $1.97 above the 09-29 close 352.84 (the 1mo worst close) and 8.93 above its own intraday low (354.81 − 345.88 = 8.93; 8.93/345.88 = +2.58% off the low) — an intraday recovery inside what remains a downside structure: the close is 17.30 below the 09-25 close 372.11 (17.30/372.11 = 4.65% below) and 32.02 below the 1mo high 386.83 (32.02/386.83 = 8.28% below). Volume 1.02x avg — neither capitulation nor absorption confirmed.
AAPL — the day's strongest close-multiple, on real volume. $333.02 (+$3.62 / +1.10%), recovers 3.62 of the 8.99 it lost yesterday (338.39 → 329.40; 3.62/8.99 = 40.27% of the decline recovered) while turning 1.17x average volume — the highest volume multiple of the five on an up day. Still structurally capped: the day high 339.50 is a lower high against the 1mo peak 345.34 (339.50 < 345.34), the close is 12.32 below 345.34 (12.32/345.34 = 3.57% below) and 23.12 above the 1mo low 309.90 (23.12/309.90 = 7.46% above).
MSFT — the split tape: new intraday high, close rejected it. The 09-30 high 519.83 is the new 1-month high (extremes period_high, dated today) — but the close 512.90 finished 6.93 below that high (519.83 − 512.90 = 6.93; 6.93/519.83 = 1.33% off the day's high) and 0.63% below the 1mo best close 516.17 (516.17 − 512.90 = 3.27; 3.27/516.17) — an intraday high that did not become a closing high. Participation argues with the rejection: 1.27x average volume, the highest of the five. The close remains 26.90 above the 1mo low 486.00 (26.90/486.00 = 5.53% above).
AMD — an up day on shrinking volume. $611.76 (+$4.19 / +0.69%) on 0.76x average volume — the only name whose up day contracted volume. 27.24 below the 1mo high 639.00 (27.24/639.00 = 4.26% below, vs 4.92% below at yesterday's close 607.57 — same peak, closer now). 171.26 above the 1mo low 440.50 (171.26/440.50 = 38.88% above).
Basket shape: four of five names closed up (+0.51% to +1.10%), but the pattern is mixed, not a thrust-high: one new monthly low (TSLA, intraday), one new monthly high (MSFT, intraday only, rejected at the close), and the panel's tone-setter (NVDA) still capped under its 09-04 peak with three lower highs. Volume is the discriminator: MSFT 1.27x and AAPL 1.17x argue real participation; AMD's 0.76x up-day contraction and TSLA's 1.02x at a new monthly low do not confirm anything.
News — status, not content
- web_search failed this wakeup (exact error quoted in Tool status; second attempt returned only undated directory pages). No dated 2026-09-30 news items are included.
- Carried-forward context, provenance named: the same-day pre-market scan
output/quant/daily_scan_2026-09-30.md(on disk, sources and URLs cited there) — fundamentals layer from that file, not re-verified in this wakeup, therefore context with provenance, not measurement: NVDA Q2 FY2027 revenue $96.2B with Q3 guide $108.0B ±2% [T3 — context: carried forward from the same-day pre-market scan, NVIDIA IR cited there]; NVDA $0.25/share dividend, record 09-15, payable 2026-10-01 (tomorrow) [T3 — same provenance]; AMD-OpenAI 6-gigawatt warrant deal (AMD IR + OpenAI cited there) [T2 — carried forward, URLs on the pre-market file]; AAPL ~20% of China iPhone shipping capacity (two independent URLs cited there) [T2 — carried forward].
Swarm debate — the bull/bear pipeline, verdict: oppose (no new longs)
Debate: debate_1790827450 (output/debates/debate_1790827450.md digest; verbatim archive output/debates/debate_1790827450.json) — 6 participants (bull_researcher, bear_researcher, fundamentals_analyst, technical_analyst, trader, risk_manager), 1 round of 3 requested (early-stopped: threshold met), verdict CONSENSUS (oppose), weighted 3.54 oppose / 1.00 support, votes 4-2, consensus ratio 0.78 [T2 — swarm_debate tool return, verbatim archives at the two paths above].
Bear case (arithmetic independently re-checked above): MSFT closed 6.93 under its intraday high — new-high tape without closing confirmation; TSLA closed 4.65% below its 09-25 close and printed a new monthly low intraday; NVDA settled below its 09-04 peak on lower highs. The bear's three historical analogs (a 2024 MSFT distribution, a 2021 TSLA low, CSCO buyback) are unverified analogies [T3 — narrative, not measured] and are not adopted as evidence. Bull's own concession: shifted its preference to MSFT on the breakout structure, at lower conviction; its vote was keyword-fallback, not self-declared. Pipeline caveat (from the debate's own header): all 6 positions ran on a single model backbone — one model, six reports; the 78% is not six independent observations.
Consensus confirmation conditions (adoption of the blockers, as the standing trigger list):
- MSFT — 2 consecutive closes above 519.83 confirms the breakout (bear's number = today's intraday 1mo high,
extremes-verified; note the risk_manager cited "$520.00, Aug 26" — the currentextremesreturn says 519.83 on 09-30, and that tool value governs). - TSLA — a close above 386.83 (09-25 high, extremes-verified) for 2 consecutive sessions invalidates the new monthly low; the bear's milder intraday-repair threshold was a close above 372.11 (09-25 close).
- NVDA — 2 consecutive closes above 234.76 (09-04 peak high) confirm the recovery has a ceiling-break rather than a lower-high series.
- AMD — 2 consecutive closes above 630.63 (09-25 best close) demonstrate post-deal stabilization.
- VIX < 20 for 3 consecutive sessions — [UNVERIFIABLE THIS WAKEUP]: no VIX quote was pulled; the risk_manager's condition is recorded but not checked. The board's regime leg prints ^VIX z = +0.29 (tool-derived) [T3 — market_signals model z-score over verified quotes].
- Up-day volume > 1.2x average — one day's sample: MSFT's up day did 1.27x (met today), AAPL 1.17x, NVDA 1.08x, TSLA 1.02x, AMD 0.76x — only one of five up days today met it.
Verdict — risk manager veto: NO TRADE
The consensus is oppose; the trader proposed no direction (cash preservation); the bear's conditional shorts (SHORT MSFT above $515 / stop $520 / target $490; SHORT TSLA above $360 / stop $365 / target $330) were not adopted — the trader and the risk_manager vetoed any directional stance before the trigger list confirms, and the risk manager's veto is final. No new positions; existing positions may be held pending the trigger list above. If MSFT does not confirm within two sessions (i.e., closes below both 516.17's neighborhood and today's high), the bear's rejection reading at the new 1mo high strengthens; if TSLA prints another close near its 1mo low on expanding volume, its structure degrades further.
Board context (market board snapshot)
Market_signals read (snapshot updated_at 2026-10-01T04:01:36Z): regime score −0.25, band neutral (legs: ^VIX z +0.29, Gold z +0.30, BTC z +0.05, USD z +0.45 — all four hedged reads lean risk-off at low magnitude) [T3 — tool-derived z-scores over verified quotes]. Open signals visible in the read (list truncated after the KR entry by the runtime's output cap): Nikkei breadth divergence (09-30: index +1.94% while all 5 panel members went the other way, share 1.0), Samsung/SK Hynix correlation break (r = +0.94 over 124 aligned sessions; −1.47% vs +0.62% today), ASX 200 −1.95% (z −3.42; desk dismissed as commodity-driven washout), plus four dismissed/stale CN/FX/metals signals. No US-equity escalation was opened into this pipeline today — this scan ran on its own end-of-quarter duty.
Data limitations
- All prices/volumes [T1: Verified] from
stock_pricequote/extremes/history returns read in this wakeup; every 期间 extreme is anextremesfield, hand-picked none. - Phase 0 is byte-identical to the checkpoint; prices not re-fetched after it. Market CLOSED — no intraday figures claimed anywhere.
- Fundamentals carried from the same-day pre-market scan [T3 with named provenance]; AMD/AAPL news items [T2 — carried forward, URLs in that file, not re-verified here].
- Oracle (prediction markets) not read this wakeup. VIX not quoted directly; its condition remains unchecked.
- Debate verdict is single-backbone (one model, 6 reports) — treat the 78% as weak corroboration, weighted by the seat weights in the archive.
- Derived percentages rounded half-up to two decimals; every ratio above shows its subtraction inline.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This report is generated by an AI simulation for informational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. Past simulations do not predict future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
盘后日扫 — 2026-09-30
今日:2026-09-30。
market_state= CLOSED(stock_pricemarket_state,来源:currentTradingPeriod 推导)。07-30 段的说明有误,以下为 2026-09-30 已收盘日 bar:全部价格取自 Phase 0 里逐字抄录的 basis 串。Phase 0 价格块与检查点逐字一致,价格未重取。
工具状态(本轮): stock_price quote×5、extremes×5、history×2(NVDA、TSLA)全部成功;swarm_debate 成功并归档(路径见下);market_signals(read) 成功;web_search 失败:第一次超时(报错原文见英文段),第二次(换查询词)只返回无日期的目录页 —— 本段不含任何新新闻,新闻一节为状态说明。
一个月极值(窗口 2026-09-01..2026-09-30,21 根日 bar)
全部取自本轮 stock_price(action='extremes', symbol=…, period='1mo') 返回 [T1: 已验证 — 逐字返回;量基线 basis 每条返回注明:"21 根日成交量 bar 的算术平均,窗口 2026-09-01..2026-09-30"]。
| 标的 | 月高(日期) | 月低(日期) | 月内最佳收盘(日期) | 月内最差收盘(日期) | 21日均量 | 09-30 量 | 量比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 234.76 (09-04) | 208.93 (09-14) | 230.36 (09-04) | 210.96 (09-14) | 112,697,119 | 121,269,300 | 1.08x |
| TSLA | 386.83 (09-25) | 345.88 (09-30) † | 380.12 (09-23) | 352.84 (09-29) | 38,555,600 | 39,158,100 | 1.02x |
| AAPL | 345.34 (09-22) | 309.90 (09-09) | 341.07 (09-25) | 315.34 (09-09) | 42,821,180 | 49,931,500 | 1.17x |
| MSFT | 519.83 (09-30) † | 486.00 (09-10) | 516.17 (09-25) | 490.30 (09-16) | 21,334,671 | 27,197,800 | 1.27x |
| AMD | 639.00 (09-25) | 440.50 (09-03) | 630.63 (09-25) | 456.16 (09-03) | 21,906,323 | 16,685,700 | 0.76x |
† 今日自身 bar 创出的极值(MSFT 的高与 TSLA 的低都是今日 bar)。按工作记忆自检规则显式标注,并给出工具返回的原文引用:TSLA "period low $345.88 (2026-09-30) [stock_price action=extremes, period=1mo, window 2026-09-01..2026-09-30, 21 bars]";MSFT "period high $519.83 (2026-09-30) [stock_price action=extremes, period=1mo, window 2026-09-01..2026-09-30, 21 bars]"。逐行核对:除这两处今日 bar 创极值外,没有任何一行的均量/期值与该行当日量在三位有效数字上相同。
窗口滚动说明:08-31 的 bar 滚出窗口、09-30 滚入 —— 与当日盘前扫描同名指标略有差异(例:NVDA 均量 112,697,119 vs 盘前版的 112,846,714);差异来自窗口滚动,不是数据冲突。两次 extremes 各自都是所在唤醒内的工具返回 [T1: 已验证]。
技术面(以下每一处比较关系都附上了做差的算式)
NVDA —— 压在 09-04 天花板下方收敛。 收 $228.38(+$1.17 / +0.51%,见 Phase 0)。09-04 顶部以来连续第三根更低的盘中高点:234.76(09-04 high)> 233.21(09-28 high)> 232.82(09-29 high)> 232.37(09-30 high)—— 后者逐根更小,压力未解。收盘距月高 234.76 为 6.38(234.76 − 228.38 = 6.38;6.38/234.76 = 低于月高 2.72%);距月内最佳收盘 230.36 为 1.98(低 0.86%);距月低 208.93 为 19.45(228.38 − 208.93 = 19.45;高出 9.31%)。量为 1.08x 均量 —— 连续第二个放量收盘(09-29 为 0.90x,见盘前扫描的 extremes 返回),但尚未突破。
TSLA —— 篮子里的避险腿。 09-30 盘中低点 345.88 是新的一个月低点(extremes period_low;低于此前盘前版记录的 08-31 bar 低点 347.15 —— 新低无条件成立)。收盘没有创出收盘低点:$354.81 高于 09-29 收盘 352.84(即月内最差收盘)$1.97,并高于自身盘中低点 8.93(354.81 − 345.88 = 8.93;8.93/345.88 = 较盘中低点反弹 2.58%)—— 但整体结构仍偏空:收盘低于 09-25 收盘 372.11 达 17.30(低 4.65%)、低于月高 386.83 达 32.02(低 8.28%)。量为 1.02x 均量 —— 既非恐慌出清、也无承接确认。
AAPL —— 当日收盘涨幅与量比最强。 $333.02(+$3.62 / +1.10%),收复昨日 8.99 点跌幅中的 3.62(338.39 → 329.40;3.62/8.99 = 收复其中 40.27%),量比 1.17x —— 五只里放量上涨的第一名。但结构上仍封顶:当日高点 339.50 相对月峰值 345.34 是更低的高点(339.50 < 345.34);收盘距 345.34 为 12.32(低 3.57%)、距月低 309.90 为 23.12(高 7.46%)。
MSFT —— 分裂的走势:盘中新高、收盘被拒。 09-30 高点 519.83 是新的一个月高点(extremes period_high,日期为今日)—— 但收盘 512.90 距它 6.93(519.83 − 512.90 = 6.93;距当日高点 1.33%)(519.83 − 512.90 = 6.93;距当日高点 1.33%),并距月内最佳收盘 516.17 低 3.27(低 0.63%)—— 盘中新高没有转化为收盘新高。但参与度与拒绝读数矛盾:1.27x 均量,五只里最高。收盘距月低 486.00 为 26.90(高 5.53%)。
AMD —— 缩量上涨。 $611.76(+$4.19 / +0.69%)于 0.76x 均量 —— 唯一一只上涨日量能收缩的。距月高 639.00 为 27.24(低 4.26%;昨收 607.57 时为 4.92% —— 同一峰,更近了);距月低 440.50 为 171.26(高 38.88%)。
篮子形态: 五只四涨(+0.51% 至 +1.10%),但形态是分化、不是齐升:一个新月低(TSLA,盘中)、一个新月高(MSFT,仅盘中、收盘被拒)、领头的 NVDA 仍压在 09-04 峰下走出三连更低位。量能是分水岭:MSFT 1.27x 与 AAPL 1.17x 是真参与;AMD 0.76x 缩量上涨与 TSLA 1.02x 新月低,什么都确认不了。
新闻 —— 状态,不是内容
- 本轮 web_search 失败(错误原文见工具状态;第二次仅返回无日期目录页)。不含任何 2026-09-30 当日新闻。
- 沿引来源已注明的背景,出自同日盘前扫描
output/quant/daily_scan_2026-09-30.md(盘上有文件,来源 URL 都在那里)—— 本轮未重核,因此只作背景、不作计量:NVDA Q2 FY2027 营收 $96.2B、Q3 指引 $108.0B ±2% [T3 —— 背景沿用盘前扫描,NVIDIA IR 见该文件];NVDA 每股 $0.25 股息,登记日 09-15,付息日 2026-10-01(明天) [T3 —— 同出处];AMD-OpenAI 6 千兆瓦认股权交易(AMD IR + OpenAI 出处在该文件)[T2 —— 沿用,URL 在盘前文件];AAPL 约 20% 的中国 iPhone 出货产能(两处独立 URL)[T2 —— 沿用]。
席位辩论 —— 多空通道,裁定:反对(不加新多)
辩论:debate_1790827450(摘要 output/debates/debate_1790827450.md;逐字归档 output/debates/debate_1790827450.json)—— 6 席(bull_researcher、bear_researcher、fundamentals_analyst、technical_analyst、trader、risk_manager),申请 3 轮、第 1 轮即达阈值提前结束,裁定 CONSENSUS (oppose),加权反对 3.54 / 支持 1.00,票 4-2,共识率 0.78 [T2 —— swarm_debate 工具返回,逐字归档在两个路径]。
空方(算式已在技术面逐条复算一致):MSFT 距盘中高 6.93 收盘 —— 新高未获收盘确认;TSLA 低于 09-25 收盘 4.65% 且盘中创月低;NVDA 低于 09-04 峰、高位走低。空方引用的三段历史类比(2024 MSFT 分布、2021 TSLA 低位、CSCO 回购)属未验证类比 [T3 —— 叙事,非计量],不采信。 多方自陈:在 MSFT 破高结构下偏好移向 MSFT,置信偏低;其投票为关键词回退、非本人声明。 通道警示(辩论文件自带标注):6 份立场同跑在同一个模型 backbone 上 —— 一个模型、六份报告;78% 不等于六次独立观察。
共识确认条件(对 blocker 的采纳,作为常设触发清单):
- MSFT —— 连续 2 根收盘站上 519.83 确认突破(空方数字 = 今日盘中月高,
extremes已验证;risk_manager 引用的是 "$520.00, 08-26" —— 本轮extremes返回为 09-30 的 519.83,以工具值为准)。 - TSLA —— 连续 2 根收盘站上 386.83(09-25 高点,extremes 已验证)作废新月低;空方较温和的盘中修复门槛为收盘站上 372.11(09-25 收盘)。
- NVDA —— 连续 2 根收盘站上 234.76(09-04 峰高)才确认突破,而非又一串低位高点。
- AMD —— 连续 2 根收盘站上 630.63(09-25 最佳收盘)确认交易落地后的稳定。
- VIX 连续 3 根 < 20 —— [本轮不可验证]:本轮未取 VIX 报价;risk_manager 条件记录在案、未核查。市场板块 regime 腿打印 ^VIX z = +0.29(工具推导)[T3 —— market_signals 模型 z 分数,基于已验证报价]。
- 上涨日量 > 1.2x 均量 —— 单日样本:MSFT 1.27x(今日达标)、AAPL 1.17x、NVDA 1.08x、TSLA 1.02x、AMD 0.76x —— 今日五只上涨日只有一只达标。
裁定 —— 风控否决:不交易
共识为反对;trader 提案为无方向(现金保管);空方的条件空单(SHORT MSFT 触发 $515 / 止损 $520 / 目标 $490;SHORT TSLA 触发 $360 / 止损 $365 / 目标 $330)未采信 —— trader 与 risk_manager 在触发清单确认前否决一切方向性头寸,风控否决权为最终裁定。不建新仓;既有头寸可持有,以上方触发清单为准。若 MSFT 两日内未确认(收盘既回不到 516.17 一带、又回不进今日高点),空方的高位拒读数会加强;若 TSLA 再以放量打印接近月低的收盘,其结构进一步恶化。
市场板块背景(板块快照)
market_signals read(快照 updated_at 2026-10-01T04:01:36Z):regime 分数 −0.25,中性带(腿:^VIX z +0.29、黄金 z +0.30、BTC z +0.05、美元 z +0.45 —— 四条避险读数均为低幅偏空)[T3 —— 工具推导 z 分数,基于已验证报价]。read 可见部分的未平仓信号(KR 之后被运行时输出上限截断):日经广度背离(09-30:指数 +1.94%,5 只面板成员全部反向);三星/SK海力士相关性断裂(124 个对齐交易日 r=+0.94;今日 −1.47% vs +0.62%);ASX 200 −1.95%(z −3.42;板块已驳回:商品拖累);另有四条已驳回/过期的 CN/FX/金属信号。今日无美股升级信号进入本通道 —— 本次日扫为季末常规义务自启。
数据局限
- 全部价格/量 [T1: 已验证],来自本轮
stock_pricequote/extremes/history 返回;每个期间极值均为extremes字段,无手挑。 - Phase 0 与检查点逐字一致,之后未重取价格。市场已收盘 —— 全文无任何盘中数字。
- 基本面沿用同日盘前扫描 [T3、出处已注明];AMD/AAPL 新闻 [T2 —— 沿用,URL 在该文件,本轮未重核]。
- Oracle(预测市场)本轮未读取。VIX 未直接报价,该条件仍未核查。
- 辩论裁定为单 backbone(一个模型、六份报告)—— 78% 按弱佐证处理,权重见归档。
- 导出百分比四舍五入保留两位小数;上方每个比价都给出做差算式。
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